Author: Torstein Hall
Date: 16:30:21 02/28/03
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On February 27, 2003 at 16:43:45, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On February 27, 2003 at 15:57:04, Brian Richardson wrote: > >>As I recall, 5 years ago folks were saying only another 10-12 years for Moore's >>Law speedups...now they are still saying another 10 years or so. I agree that >>at some point physics will dictate limitations, but then there is more >>parallelism. Sun just outlined plans for running 4 threads on each of 4 cores >>on a single chip in the 3-5 year time frame. That would be roughly 16x. Both >>Intel and IBM have similar plans to extend on-chip parallelism. >>Bottom Line: Just as coding for 64 bits will become the norm soon, so will >>coding for parallel searching with multiple threads. >> >>Brian > > >If you look back over the past 5 years, I've said that a hundred times. >"Moore's law" >is definitely fading fast. That statement do not sum correctly if I remember right. Is it not 5, 6 or 7 years ago a 200MHZ Pentium Pro was really hot? At the moment Intel is fast moving beyond 3Ghz. Thats a hefty 15 times clock speedup in the period, not counting paralelism etc. etc. So if this is right Moores law is breaking, the speedup seen from a consumers point of view is much higher! Torstein But a "pseudo-moore's law" dealing only with >performance, >has a hope for quite a bit longer, but in the realm of parallel programming. N >cpus on >a chip has been done already. SMT is a different take on the same thing. A >single chip >with N cpus and M threads makes complete sense, although that will only extend >the >limit a few years, because you can't keep adding cpus without making the cpu die >size >requirement smaller. And that is what is coming to an end...
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