Author: GuyHaworth
Date: 16:07:43 07/15/05
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Check out Jeroen Donkers Ph.D. thesis 'Nosce Hostem', i.e. 'Know thine enemy'. Jeroen also tried out Probabilistic Opponent Modelling (PrOM), where the opponent is Opponent(i) with Probability p(i), a probability that can be refined by Bayesian techniques. I think he found that this was not a good use of a finite amount of computing time compared with simpler approaches to minimax. While Jeroen was doing his Ph.D., I independently created an opponent model specific to endgames with computed EGTs. This model can be used in a PrOM to calculate the 'optimum move', and the probabilities p(i) can be changed by Bayesian analysis. This goes beyond Jansen's work on the endgame by proposing a whole spectrum of opponent models. Articles in ICGA_J, and (with Rafael Andrist) in the ACG (Graz) book and (to come) in the Journal of Theoretical Computer Science (Elsevier). g
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