Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 15:02:04 06/29/99
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On June 29, 1999 at 01:28:28, Jouni Uski wrote: >These superfast programs only got 3 resp 3.5 points! Specially P.Conners was >one of the favourites before WCCC. I hope someone can give explanations. Let's suppose that one of the programs has an ELO 500 points above all the other programs. Did you know that the odds of winning all seven games against those opponents would be only 68%? Since the win expectancy for a 500 point difference is 0.0532402, the superior opponent has 0.9467598 as their expectancy. The odds of an output of 1 seven times in a row is therefore ( 0.9467598 )^7 = 0.6818340171542. In short, from a tiny match like this, where the real strength of each and every opponent is a true unknown, we really have no idea whatsoever which program is best. We do have a champion, and it also seems probable that the top ten finishers are among the best programs. P.Conners and Zugzwang may be the among the strongest programs in the world or even the strongest for all we know. Or it could be Mini, for that matter. People seem to think that a simple contest like this shows us which is the best program. It most emphatically does not accomplish that goal. What is achieved is a championship, which is something altogether different.
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