Author: GuyHaworth
Date: 05:06:04 02/26/03
Go up one level in this thread
Moore recently opined that his Moore's Law holds until 2017, and that the industry's challenge is to push 2017 out to later. I have no doubt they will. If the MHz of standard processors doubles every N (say 18) months, you can work out where that takes you in 2020 or 2030. Translating this into ELO advantage in (at least) C-C play, I believe that 3x processor-power = 1 more ply in the search, which is worth some 50 (and decreasing) ELO extra. For this, see Heinz' latest self-play results going up to 12-v-11 ply-search. Looks like 10 years gives you about 4 plies extra. To that, you can add the contribution of improvements in: a) parallel-processor platforms: SMP, clustered, and share-nothing b) memory technology c) ancillary technologies like FPGAs d) software for opening-book development e) search/select/evaluate algorithms f) endgame knowledge: maybe complete 7-man by end-2013. So, by the end of 2013, you might be looking at engines 200 ELO better than today. However, I hope that this power will be used to create chess-engines that 'explain and instruct' - which implies that they will do so in human terms. I see the DJ team stating similar objectives, i.e., that 'beating humans' is not the ultimate life-enhancing objective. g
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