Author: Sandro Necchi
Date: 03:59:41 02/20/05
Go up one level in this thread
On February 20, 2005 at 06:53:10, Uri Blass wrote: >On February 20, 2005 at 06:25:58, Sandro Necchi wrote: > >>On February 20, 2005 at 06:02:25, Uri Blass wrote: >> >>>On February 20, 2005 at 04:40:19, Sandro Necchi wrote: >>> >>>>On February 19, 2005 at 07:43:49, Vincent Diepeveen wrote: >>>> >>>>>On February 17, 2005 at 14:03:30, Tord Romstad wrote: >>>> >>>>Hi Vincent, >>>> >>>>I hope everything is well with you. I guess you'll meet Stefan at Paderborn. >>>> >>>>> >>>>>Don't do idiot experiments that just support the idiocy you invented yourself. >>>>> >>>>>IF you have an engine rated 3000 in strength THEN it will play virtually achieve >>>>>2300 in the important games instead of 3000 when NOT using a book. So the book >>>>>delivers 700 rating points. >>>> >>>>This is a very interesting statement. >>>>I agree with you and I know that the stronger an engine is the best it will get >>>>from a good opening book, but I never estimated how much it would get reaching >>>>3000 in strenght. >>>> >>>>> >>>>>Experiments with some idiot engine that is itself rated what is it, 2200, >>>>>will be useless of course. >>>>> >>>>>Some years ago when engines were 2200 level it was the Mchess-Necchi team who >>>>>said a book was worth 300, and he meant that obviously in the same way as i mean >>>>>the 700 points at real high level. >>>> >>>>Yes, you are correct. >>>> >>>>> >>>>>The weakest link is what counts. >>>>> >>>>>I don't care for your engine in that respect, let alone such stupid experiment. >>>>> >>>>>Take a strong engine from which you feel it is the best engine in the world. >>>>>Show up without book in important events. World champ will be the best test. >>>>> >>>>>THEN calculate after a 100 years of doing that, what the odds were you won that >>>>>event. You will see it's 0%. >>>> >>>>Yes, here we agree too. >>>> >>>>Sandro >>> >>>Suppose for the discussion that stefan find a way to improve the engine by 200 >>>elo in one year based on rating from the predefined positions that it was not >>>tuned specifically for them(correct me if I am wrong but you probably expect it >>>to happen in less than 10 years but not in one year). >> >>Of course Stefan will not be able to improve the engine by 200 points; > >Of course it is not something that I expect to happen in one year but saying >that it will not happen in 10 years is not obvious. > >After all I guess that we get clearly more than 200 elo improvement if we >compare shredder9 with Genius3(best program in the beginning of 1995) in nunn >type games. > > > it is >>unlike to happen and there is no need as we are leading the SSDF list and always >>playing to win the WCCC title, I mean if we do not win we get 2nd place. Last >>year however we have been handicapped by a bad bug... > > >> >>> >>>Do you think that it also had no chance to win world championship without book >>>in 2006? >> >>No, without a strong opening book, no matter how strong is your engine there are >>no chances to win the WCCC. >>Maybe 0% is too conservative; better to say 0.000000001% chances >> >>>If not then the chances to win world championship is more than 0% in case that >>>you have an engine that is strong enough. >> >>Well, the point is to win, so instead of 0.000000001% chances it is better to >>use one book that should raise these up to 50%...don't you agree? > >I agree that a book can increase the chances to win. Not a book, but a good book... >I do not agree about your estimates. > >Shredder with no book has good chances to win some games against Movei or Jonny >with no exceptional luck. > >0.000000001% is 1/10^11 > >if Shredder has only 10% chances to win every game then it has chances of >1/10^11 to score 100% > >I think that even shredder with no book has at least 10% chances to beat >everything when a new version that the opponents do not know play and it has >more than 50% chances to beat some weak engines even with no book so even the >chances to get 100% with no book is higher than 1/10^11. to win one needs to score at least 7.5 out of 9, so this means one can loose only one game and draw only one or draw 3 and win all the remaining games...that means +7=1-1 or +6=3-0 considering that all the best competitors do have a good opening book is seems impossible without a good opening book... this is my experience in very many tournaments... > > >Uri Sandro
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