Author: Uri Blass
Date: 03:53:10 02/20/05
Go up one level in this thread
On February 20, 2005 at 06:25:58, Sandro Necchi wrote: >On February 20, 2005 at 06:02:25, Uri Blass wrote: > >>On February 20, 2005 at 04:40:19, Sandro Necchi wrote: >> >>>On February 19, 2005 at 07:43:49, Vincent Diepeveen wrote: >>> >>>>On February 17, 2005 at 14:03:30, Tord Romstad wrote: >>> >>>Hi Vincent, >>> >>>I hope everything is well with you. I guess you'll meet Stefan at Paderborn. >>> >>>> >>>>Don't do idiot experiments that just support the idiocy you invented yourself. >>>> >>>>IF you have an engine rated 3000 in strength THEN it will play virtually achieve >>>>2300 in the important games instead of 3000 when NOT using a book. So the book >>>>delivers 700 rating points. >>> >>>This is a very interesting statement. >>>I agree with you and I know that the stronger an engine is the best it will get >>>from a good opening book, but I never estimated how much it would get reaching >>>3000 in strenght. >>> >>>> >>>>Experiments with some idiot engine that is itself rated what is it, 2200, >>>>will be useless of course. >>>> >>>>Some years ago when engines were 2200 level it was the Mchess-Necchi team who >>>>said a book was worth 300, and he meant that obviously in the same way as i mean >>>>the 700 points at real high level. >>> >>>Yes, you are correct. >>> >>>> >>>>The weakest link is what counts. >>>> >>>>I don't care for your engine in that respect, let alone such stupid experiment. >>>> >>>>Take a strong engine from which you feel it is the best engine in the world. >>>>Show up without book in important events. World champ will be the best test. >>>> >>>>THEN calculate after a 100 years of doing that, what the odds were you won that >>>>event. You will see it's 0%. >>> >>>Yes, here we agree too. >>> >>>Sandro >> >>Suppose for the discussion that stefan find a way to improve the engine by 200 >>elo in one year based on rating from the predefined positions that it was not >>tuned specifically for them(correct me if I am wrong but you probably expect it >>to happen in less than 10 years but not in one year). > >Of course Stefan will not be able to improve the engine by 200 points; Of course it is not something that I expect to happen in one year but saying that it will not happen in 10 years is not obvious. After all I guess that we get clearly more than 200 elo improvement if we compare shredder9 with Genius3(best program in the beginning of 1995) in nunn type games. it is >unlike to happen and there is no need as we are leading the SSDF list and always >playing to win the WCCC title, I mean if we do not win we get 2nd place. Last >year however we have been handicapped by a bad bug... > >> >>Do you think that it also had no chance to win world championship without book >>in 2006? > >No, without a strong opening book, no matter how strong is your engine there are >no chances to win the WCCC. >Maybe 0% is too conservative; better to say 0.000000001% chances > >>If not then the chances to win world championship is more than 0% in case that >>you have an engine that is strong enough. > >Well, the point is to win, so instead of 0.000000001% chances it is better to >use one book that should raise these up to 50%...don't you agree? I agree that a book can increase the chances to win. I do not agree about your estimates. Shredder with no book has good chances to win some games against Movei or Jonny with no exceptional luck. 0.000000001% is 1/10^11 if Shredder has only 10% chances to win every game then it has chances of 1/10^11 to score 100% I think that even shredder with no book has at least 10% chances to beat everything when a new version that the opponents do not know play and it has more than 50% chances to beat some weak engines even with no book so even the chances to get 100% with no book is higher than 1/10^11. Uri
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