Author: Chris Carson
Date: 05:08:17 02/26/03
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On February 26, 2003 at 06:15:04, Chris wrote: >I am doing some research on computer chess, and I am looking for some >essays/viewpoints about the future, say 20-30 years from now. The important >thing is the big questions like: What will it mean for chess when/if a computer >program beats the human world champion consistently in a match (not only near >equal scores)? If computers reach 3100-3300 ELO or so, will it change anything >in comparison with the situation at present? Will it spoil chess? Is there a >chance/risk of chess being solved with the supercomputers of the future? etc. > >I am also looking for some predictions/information about processor speed in >20-30 years from now. > >Any viewpoints from the forum on these questions are of course most welcome, and >links to essays/viewpoints on this subject would be of great help. > >Thanks in advance for any help 1. What will it mean for chess when/if a computer program beats the human world champion consistently in a match (not only near equal scores)? Nothing in my opinion. Chess is chess, computer programs are a tool to help people, people will play better. 2. If computers reach 3100-3300 ELO or so, will it change anything in comparison with the situation at present? See 1. above. 3. Will it spoil chess? No. See 1. above. 4. Is there a chance/risk of chess being solved with the supercomputers of the future? Eventually the programs will solve it, however, that is many years in the future. Humans will still play, to many games to memorize. 5. I am also looking for some predictions/information about processor speed in 20-30 years from now. For micro's Moore's law still holds. So 21 years is 7 doublings of speed or 128 times as fast as today. Also, SW/Hardware ELO continues to increase at about 70 points for doubling speed, so in 21 years the ELO of the top Micro could 500 points stronger (single proc only) or 3300 ELO vs Human GM's. GM's will also be stronger, perhaps 150 more points (based on the last 20 years, so the top GM would be about 3000 ELO and could still draw or even win a game or two against the top Program/Micro.
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